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All of Hubbert's analyses of peak oil specifically excluded oil manufactured from oil shale or mined from oil sands.

A 2013 study predicting an early peak excluded deepwater oil, tight oil, oil with API gravity less than 17.5, and oil close to the poles, such as that on the North Slope of Alaska, all of which it defined as non-conventional.

Predictions vary greatly as to what exactly these negative effects would be.

Oil production forecasts on which predictions of peak oil are based are sometimes made within a range which includes optimistic (higher production) and pessimistic (lower production) scenarios.

Some observers, such as petroleum industry experts Kenneth S.

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